The Rams Won the Offseason and Priced Super Bowl LXI

Los Angeles opened the 2026 season as a +500 Super Bowl favorite after trading for Myles Garrett and bringing Aaron Donald back. Eagles writer Jimmy Kempski has the Rams beating the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl LXI, which is also where a sprawling analyst ballot landed.

The other side of that ledger showed up Wednesday. Defending champion Seattle had to finish a 13-10 win over New England after Sam Darnold left with a hip injury, five snaps into the title defense.

Who Jimmy Kempski Picks to Win Super Bowl LXI

Kempski has the Rams over the Broncos in February, the Bills losing another AFC title game, and the Lions as the NFC’s 1-seed on schedule strength they will not cash in January. He published the bracket on Sept. 9, hours around the kickoff in Seattle.

A survey of more than 60 NFL analysts put the Rams on 37 Super Bowl tickets and 43 NFC title tickets. The Broncos led the AFC side with 19 conference picks and sat second in Super Bowl votes with 8. Kempski is with that crowd on the matchup. He is not with it on Detroit as the 1-seed, or on Houston as a real February team.

KEMPSKI’S BRACKET AGAINST THE ANALYST BOARD

Dallas drew 5 NFC title votes and did not make his seven. Houston drew 10 AFC title votes, and he still calls a Texans Super Bowl “nuts” because of the offensive line and the quarterback under pressure. The Chargers are in his tournament with a shrug: wake him up when Justin Herbert wins a playoff game.

The Rams Bought the NFC This Offseason

DraftKings listed the Rams at +500, an implied 16.7 percent chance, the shortest opening number of any club. The Bills and Ravens sat next at +1000, about 9.1 percent. NFL writer Steven Ruiz boiled the fade down to one line: if you are not picking the Rams, you are banking on injuries.

The injury hedge is already on the calendar. Donald, 35, is sitting out the Melbourne opener against San Francisco on Sept. 10 after two years away. Coach Sean McVay said he will be ready sooner rather than later, and that Garrett, who missed most of camp with knee swelling, will play.

The Rams announced Donald’s return on Aug. 30, on a one-year deal worth $20 million that can reach $30 million with playoff incentives. He last played in 2023. The club had already traded for Garrett on June 1, sending 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year Jared Verse to Cleveland as part of the deal. Garrett set the single-season sack record with 23 last year and won his second Defensive Player of the Year award.

I was doing everything I needed to do to get myself some peace of mind to see if I can do it. Wasn’t no rushing. Just wanted to take my time and make the decision because once you choose to come back, you’re all the way back in.

Aaron Donald, Rams defensive tackle, on his return

The pass-rush pairing on the same line is the offseason in one picture. Donald has 111 sacks, 3 Defensive Player of the Year awards, 8 first-team All-Pros and 10 Pro Bowls. Garrett has 125.5 sacks, 2 of those awards, 5 first-team All-Pros and 7 Pro Bowls. Together that is 236.5 sacks, 5 Defensive Player of the Year honors, 17 Pro Bowls and 13 first-team All-Pros, before counting Braden Fiske, Byron Young, Kobie Turner and Poona Ford.

WHAT LOS ANGELES STACKED

• The price: +500 on DraftKings, shortest of any team at kickoff.
• The vote: 37 Super Bowl picks and 43 NFC title picks in a 60-plus analyst survey.
• The front: Donald and Garrett plus Fiske (11.5 sacks in two seasons), Young (27.5 in three) and Turner (24 in three).
• The building: Super Bowl LXI is Feb. 14, 2027, at SoFi Stadium, where Donald closed the Rams’ 23-20 win over Cincinnati in Super Bowl LVI.

Matthew Stafford is back as the reigning MVP. The Rams also added corner Trent McDuffie on a four-year, $124 million extension. Kempski still has them as the 2-seed, behind Detroit, because he does not think they are getting the softest slate. He has them beating the Eagles in the West, then beating Seattle in an NFC title rematch, this time with Los Angeles going to the Super Bowl.

Seattle Already Had to Win Without Darnold

Kempski’s fifth NFC seed is the club that just raised a banner. He says the Seahawks got worse this offseason while the Rams got better, after a year of close games Seattle won. Wednesday night gave that argument a bruise it did not need.

Darnold went down with a hip injury on the first drive, sacked by Dre’Mont Jones on third down. He was 1 of 2 for 13 yards. He limped to the tent, then to the locker room, and was ruled out before halftime. Drew Lock went 16 of 22 for 187 yards, including a 45-yard touchdown to reigning Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Seattle came back from 10-0 in the third quarter to win 13-10.

It’s good news right now, at this point, we were able to rule out a fracture. He’ll have some more tests done.

Mike Macdonald, Seahawks head coach, postgame

Darnold had a CT scan at Harborview Medical Center in Seattle. Adam Schefter said the first pass was encouraging and inconclusive, with an MRI set for Thursday. Macdonald called the early word “great news.” The scan does not put Darnold in Week 2. It only takes a fracture off the table.

Last season he threw for 4,048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions and the Seahawks won a franchise-record 14 games. On Feb. 8 in Santa Clara they beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX, with Kenneth Walker III named MVP after 135 rushing yards on 27 carries. Walker is in Kansas City now. Zach Charbonnet is coming back from a January ACL tear. The new lead back is Jadarian Price, and he ran 10 times for 52 yards in the opener.

That is the defending champion as a 5-seed in this script: still good enough to meet the Rams in the NFC title game, thin enough that Kempski has already flipped the rematch. The health fade people keep using on Los Angeles landed first on Seattle.

Denver’s Path Is the Trenches

Kempski’s AFC Super Bowl team is not Buffalo, Baltimore or Houston. It is Denver, on a great defense and a great offensive line, the combination he says can win championships. The analyst survey already had the Broncos as the AFC favorite (19 votes). He is just willing to ride them through a Bills heartbreak and into SoFi.

The Bills get the 1-seed because they play the Jets and Dolphins twice and because he thinks New England falls off. Then they lose another AFC Championship Game. He has said that part as a fact of the Buffalo calendar. The Jaguars are his 3-seed after a hot finish last season and a playoff loss to Buffalo. The Bengals score a lot and give a lot up. The Chiefs are the 7-seed, “flying under the radar” after a down 2025, with Patrick Mahomes having to show the ACL and LCL tears from last year are not still in the picture.

Houston is the argument he wants. Ten analysts in that survey still had the Texans winning the AFC. He has them in the field and out of February until the line and the quarterback prove something under pressure. Will Anderson is his Defensive Player of the Year, a 12-sack peak that Kempski thinks is ready to jump, which is a neat trick: the same defense he will not trust in January.

Herbert is the regular-season MVP on this ballot and a playoff pretender in the same paragraph. The Chargers are the 5-seed. The award and the January role do not have to agree, and in this column they do not.

Detroit Draws the Easiest Schedule in the League

Kempski’s 1-seed is the team he does not think is as good as the Rams, the Seahawks or even the Eagles. He has Detroit there because it has the easiest projected schedule in the league, using Vegas win totals instead of last year’s records. Warren Sharp had the Lions first, the Saints and Bengals right behind, and the Cardinals last.

BetMGM hung Detroit at 10.5 wins, level with New England and with the defending champion Seahawks. Sharp also had the Lions opening with the easiest first five weeks, only one projected winner in that stretch, and just two outdoor games from Week 5 through Week 16, Miami and a Germany date.

WHY THE 1-SEED IS A SCHEDULE PICK

• The ranking: Sharp’s board, built on 2026 win totals, puts Detroit first and Arizona last.
• The number: 10.5 wins at BetMGM, not a 14-win tax.
• The catch in January: Kempski has the Lions choking away the 1-seed the way they did in 2024.
• The skill player: Jahmyr Gibbs is his Offensive Player of the Year, a rusher and receiver on a team he thinks will win a pile of regular-season games.

The Eagles are his 3-seed on defense. They get through the Bears in the wild card and lose to the Rams out west. The Buccaneers win an NFC South he thinks will be a single-digit division again. The Bears hold as a 6-seed because, unlike the 2024 Commanders, they have young talent under the crazy finishes. Minnesota nips Green Bay for the last slot, with Kempski cool on Kyler Murray and warmer on the rest of the roster.

The 1-seed is the schedule. The January exit is the memory. He is not mixing those up.

The Jets Are Drafting at the Top on Purpose

His 2027 draft board is a loser column with numbers on it. The Jets are pick 1 because they traded Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, then moved a sixth-round pick for Geno Smith and a seventh-round pick. “They are very clearly not trying to win in 2026,” he wrote.

The trades match the paper. New York sent Gardner to Indianapolis for two first-round picks and Adonai Mitchell, and moved Williams to Dallas, after a 1-7 start under general manager Darren Mougey and coach Aaron Glenn. Mougey said he would not call it a teardown. The roster still has to play 17 games with Geno Smith as the quarterback it went and got.

THE BOTTOM OF HIS 2027 BOARD

• 1. Jets: Stars out, Geno in, a rebuild that is not pretending.
• 2. Cardinals: He calls the franchise unserious, full stop.
• 3. Dolphins: Jaylen Waddle and Minkah Fitzpatrick were moved out, the same kind of subtraction he pinned on New York.
• 4. Commanders: A high pick that could restart a quarterback debate if Jayden Daniels has another rough, hurt year.
• 5. Falcons: Enough talent to win a weak South, not enough quarterback or defense to stay out of the top five.

Minkah landed with the Jets on a seventh-round pick and a three-year, $40 million extension, which is how a fire sale in Miami becomes a depth chart in New York and still leaves both clubs in Kempski’s basement. The Saints, on the other end of that South, are his Coach of the Year bet if Kellen Moore actually wins it.

Herbert Gets the Trophy Before the Playoffs Start

The individual ballot is the regular season talking. Herbert piles up numbers. Gibbs piles up touches on the easiest slate. Anderson piles up sacks on a Texans team Kempski will not pick in February. Lane Johnson, in a honor Kempski calls Protector of the Year, gets “one last great season” on lifetime merit.

HIS 2026 AWARD CARD

Price is the cleanest rookie bet on the card. Seattle used the 32nd pick on a Notre Dame back who had been behind Jeremiyah Love in college, then put him in Walker’s old job. He did not play the preseason after lower-body soreness, then posted 52 yards on 10 carries against New England. Downs is the national-TV pick, a Cowboys defensive rookie on a team Kempski does not even have in the seven.

The NFC, in this telling, is better than the AFC and would cash a third straight Lombardi. Super Bowl LXI is already parked in Inglewood on Feb. 14, 2027. The Rams open the season in Melbourne without Donald and with Garrett. Seattle already played a night, and won, without the quarterback who just won the last one.

The offseason had a winner. Thursday is the first bill.

Disclaimer: This article is news reporting and analysis of preseason predictions, betting prices and opening-week results. It is informational only and is not a wagering tip, a sports-betting recommendation or financial advice. Anyone considering a bet on NFL futures, sides or props should consult a licensed gambling counselor and follow the laws in their state, and should never stake money they cannot afford to lose. Prices, injury statuses and roster notes reflect the cited sportsbooks, team announcements and quotes as of Sept. 10, 2026, and will change as games are played.